A new technical report presented to the Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod) has concluded that the macroeconomic benefits of the GoldBod programmed far outweigh the reported trading losses recorded by the Bank of Ghana (BoG), describing the initiative as a “high-return policy intervention” for the economy.
The report, Evaluating the Macroeconomic Effects of the Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod), was authored by Prof. Festus Ebo Turkson and Peter Junior Dotse of the University of Ghana’s Department of Economics, and Prof. Agyapomaa Gyeke-Dako of the University of Ghana Business School. It is dated January 4, 2026.
According to the authors, GoldBod has significantly reduced gold smuggling by formalizing artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) exports.
The report notes that recorded ASM gold exports increased from 63.6 tons in 2024 to 103.0 tons in 2025.
“The incremental 39.4 tons is plausibly gold previously lost to smuggling that has now been formalized,” the report stated, adding that, when conservatively valued, this translated into about US$3.8 billion in additional foreign exchange entering the formal system.
The economists directly compared these gains with the International Monetary Fund–reported BoG trading loss of US$214 million (about GH¢2.4 billion), concluding that the benefits overwhelmingly exceed the costs.
“A direct comparison shows a benefit–cost ratio of approximately 18:1,” the report said, stressing that “formalizing just 2.2 tons of gold would offset the reported loss.”
Beyond smuggling reduction, the report highlighted the importance of non-debt foreign exchange inflows generated through GoldBod-supported ASM exports, which amounted to US$10.8 billion in 2025.
“If Ghana had borrowed externally to mobilize equivalent foreign exchange, annual interest costs would have been between US$756 million and US$1.08 billion,” the authors noted.
Even when focusing solely on reduced smuggling, the report estimates avoided annual interest costs of between US$266 million and US$380 million, describing these as “recurring annual benefits, not one-off gains.”
The report also linked GoldBod’s activities to broader macroeconomic improvements, including higher international reserves of about US$11–12 billion, exchange rate stabilization, lower domestic costs of external debt service, a reduced import bill, and disinflation driven by lower exchange-rate pass-through.
Addressing public debate around the BoG’s reported losses, the authors argued that the figures are widely misunderstood.
“Most of the reported BoG loss reflects accounting translation effects, not cash losses,” the report explained, noting that gold purchases are made at near-retail exchange rates to deter smuggling, while foreign exchange inflows are booked at the lower interbank rate.
The report estimates the true economic cost at around 2.5 per cent of gold value, “far lower than headline loss figures.”
In its conclusion, the report urged policymakers to view GoldBod not as a commercial trading entity but as a stabilization tool.
“GoldBod should be regarded not as a profit-driven trading entity, but as a tool for macroeconomic stabilization and formalization,” the authors said, adding that “based on available evidence, it serves as a high-return policy intervention for Ghana’s economy.”
The report recommends sustaining price competitiveness to deter smuggling, improving transparency in BoG reporting, strengthening governance and oversight, and treating GoldBod’s policy cost as a quasi-fiscal expense funded through the national budget.
Source: myxyzonline.com
